✍ Muhammad Ahmad Khan
2024 has transformed Bangladesh internally regarding the socio-political and economic indicators after the Bangladeshi student revolution overthrew the 15 years of Hasina’s rule and established the new interim government headed by Nobel laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus. These domestic changes have wider implications for South Asia and beyond. While 2023 was remarkable in celebrating Bangladesh’s economic success and it geopolitical importance in and outside the region, human rights remained a concern for the national and the international community. On one side when the US, France, Japan, and India appreciated Bangladesh as a prominent security partner in the Indo-Pacific, the West raised concerns about democratic erosion under Sheikh Hasina. Awami League, led by Hasina secured the majority of 223 out of 300 seats in the General Elections on 7 January 2024. International observers and the US marked these elections as rigged and manipulated by Hasina’s excessive control of state institutions and suppression of political opposition. Earlier, the international human rights bodies had raised concerns about transparency in the 2014 and 2019 elections as well.
The events that led to Sheikh Hasina’s resignation and fleeing to India were not solely based on the opposing quota system. Starting in July, the student-led opposition turned violent when the government dealt with the protestors with brute force. In her 15-year-long rule, Hasina has dealt with any opposition with an iron fist. The political parties including Khaleda Zia’s BNP and Jamaat Islami were hardly represented the political sphere. Started as opposing the quota system, the protests turned nationwide against Hasina’s authoritarianism and social indicators with the rise in unemployment and inflation.
Dr. Muhammad Yunus, the Chief Executive of the present transitional arrangement in Bangladesh has enormous tasks to put his country on a trajectory of financial revival and conduct elections as soon as the conditions become suitable. At first, the idea was that the interim setup would soon conduct the elections. However, political analysts have observed that it will take time to revitalize the economic and political trajectories of Bangladesh, marking the end of 2025 suitable for the elections as Dr. Yunus himself claimed. Yunus once wished to have his own political party during the 2006-08 political crisis when both Hasina and Khaleda Zia were arrested, which he no longer does. The existing political vacuum in Dhaka will be fulfilled by the existing political forces. Khaleda Zia has been released from house arrest and the interim government has lifted the ban from Jamaat Islami. However, the success of these parties will depend upon the coherence they draw with the reformed political structure and social cognizance.
Although Sheikh Hasina legitimized her rule based on the economic and diplomatic success, Bangladesh saw under her rule. But in the last three years, the country saw negative economic growth with rising concerns among its youth. The ADB expects Bangladesh to grow at 5.1 percent in 2025 down from the projected 5.8 and the estimated prospective of 7.1 percent in 2024 and 2022 respectively. The inflation also appears to rise to 10.1 percent in the next year from 6.2 and 9.7 percent in 2022 and 2024 respectively. These problems instigated by the political instability bring enormous challenges for the Yunus government. While formulating economic policies he has to be conscious of the ignored strata of Bangladeshi society under Hasina. Besides the economic successes, the majority of the common people in the country could not seek the benefits. The government needs to reform the garment industry as it only represented 84% of total export revenue in 2023. Maintaining ties with the EU and Britain which source 60 percent of Bangladesh’s ready-made garments would assist the government in offsetting the pressure. Another challenge that the government led by Yunus will need to overcome is the fight against corruption, and making the government and its institutions more transparent.
With these domestic political realignments, Bangladesh has influenced regional dynamics also. The country with the most loss in the whole political drama is India. Overall, 2024 has been a pressuring year for India in its diplomatic outreach in South Asia. Political shifts in countries like Maldives, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bangladesh are not serving India in the way Delhi expects. The anti-India campaign in the Maldives earlier and post-2024 elections in Bangladesh was instigated by Delhi’s neutral stance against Hasina’s repressive policies and providing her safe haven when she is wanted in hundreds of cases for trial in Dhaka.
While the Yunus government extends a friendly hand towards China & Pakistan unlike Hasina’s India-first policy against public sentiment, New Delhi looks under pressure to balance its diplomatic approach in the region. It is in this context Dhaka under Yunus is establishing a stronger and more effective policy regime to address all extraordinary issues with India including Water sharing, border security and the extradition of Sheikh Hasina. Given India’s self-perceived supremacy in the region, the India-Bangladesh bilateral relations will continue to sour in 2025. The attacks on Hindus in Bangladesh are another major factors distancing the two countries.
Both Delhi and the US need to understand the shifting nature of the regional context in South Asia. Dhaka is looking towards Pakistan and China to lessen its dependency on India. For the import of Rice, Wheat, Onions and potatoes, Bangladesh is seeking new partners instead of depending extensively on Delhi. In these aspects, Pakistan is looking to cash the opportunity as direct trade between the two countries has resumed. Moreover, Bangladesh and Pakistan have reached an understanding over military cooperation as the latter’s Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff, Lieutenant General Sahir Shamshad Mirza will be travelling to Bangladesh followed by a military delegation to train Bangladeshi military in February.
So far, India has put all the blame on Pakistan for the disengagement in SAARC. With the support to revive SAARC coming from Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal, it will be worrisome for Delhi to divert the blame now. Although reviving SAARC without India will not be a feasible option, the consenting countries may move towards sub-regional frameworks excluding India or can work under D-8.
Political shifts in South Asian countries has influenced the regional dynamics but not to the extent that Dhaka is doing. This makes Bangladesh the most significant country of 2024 in South Asia. The coming year will bring enormous challenges for the country and will require sound political and diplomatic understanding from the Yunus government to resolve them.
