Dr. Khuram Iqbal-Pakistan
Since the Taliban’s ascendance in Kabul in 2021, Pakistan has witnessed a sharp resurgence in terrorist attacks reminiscent of the pre-APS era nightmare. In 2024, Pakistan has witnessed a 72% increase in terrorism. Of 521 total attacks, a shocking 95% occurred in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, the two provinces bordering Afghanistan. Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the largest contributor to these incidents, along with its alleged front Tehrik-e-Jihad Pakistan, has become more active, lethal, and sophisticated in its operations. Islamabad firmly believes this organizational growth of TTP is fueled by the logistical and monetary backing of the Taliban government in Afghanistan.
Despite Pakistan’s persistent reminders to the Taliban to uphold their counter-terrorism pledges at Doha Agreement, the efforts have borne no fruit. While Pakistan has been the most vocal victim, it isn’t the only aggrieved party. The concerns about spike in terrorism originating from Afghan soil have been echoed by both the international as well as regional countries including Iran, Tajikistan and China.
International observers including the UN also echo Pakistan’s concerns on TTP’s safe sanctuaries in Afghan territory. A report prepared by the U.N. Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team in February last year noted that the Taliban’s relationship “remains strong” with senior al-Qaida leaders, and they “are generally sympathetic to TTP aims”.
Regional countries are equally concerned. In September 2024, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session, China, Russia, Iran and Pakistan expressed concerns over the presence of terrorist groups such as ISIL, Al-Qaida, the Eastern Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), TTP, Jaish ul-Adl, Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and other similar groups. As it turned out within few weeks following the statement, a group of armed individuals crossed the border from Afghanistan and targeted Chinese personnel working on a mining project in neighboring Tajikistan, leaving 1 dead and 4 injured. It invited strong condemnation from Beijing.
The growing involvement of the TTP in cross-border terrorism has strained bilateral ties between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan has repeatedly communicated its concerns about the group, which acts transnationally. Despite possessing the capacity to eliminate TTP sanctuaries within its borders, the Afghan government appears unwilling to act decisively
In December 2024, following an increase in cross-border attacks, Pakistan conducted airstrikes in bordering Barmal district of Afghanistan hitting terrorist hideouts. The situation further deteriorated when Taliban information minister implied continued support for TTP in response: saying, “We must honor the Afghan nation’s commitment to safeguarding these guests, friends” and warned Pakistan to “learn from the defeat of three superpowers” that had attacked Afghanistan.
During more than two decades of insurgency against the US-led international forces, Pakistan supported Afghan Taliban at the cost of its international image. Then why would they choose to support TTP over Pakistan? Does that make any strategic sense?
This reluctance is rooted in ideological alignment with the TTP, which hinders pragmatic decision-making. No longer a non-state actor, the Taliban are looking for stability to govern, which puts them at crossroads with ISKP, which desires chaos to get a foothold. In contrast, the TTP’s ideological convergence not only prevents them from challenging the Taliban but actually reinforces their power within Afghanistan. Had the Afghan government acted pragmatically, it would have preferred to retain Pakistan’s support, a country that has been serving as an economic lifeline for Afghanistan. This selective approach to combating terrorism suggests a deliberate – and potentially dangerous calculus at play in Kabul, one that prioritizes ideological alignment over regional stability and the well-being of its neighbor.
Afghan Taliban’s inaction against the TTP not only strains relations with Pakistan but also undermines their broader efforts to gain legitimacy on the global stage. This resurgence of terrorism calls for urgent and collective action by all affected actors, as the consequences extend beyond immediate neighbors to the global stage.
To address this growing concern, it is a matter of time before Pakistan, Central Asian states, along with Russia and China formulate a collective security strategy to address the growing threat of transnational terrorism emanating from Afghanistan. A regional approach must be devised in concert with the stakeholders, affected from terrorism, that incentivizes Taliban to relinquish their ascriptive tendencies and join the region in pursuit of peace and development.
One such regional effort is already underway. China is responding to the situation by encouraging Pakistan and Afghanistan to engage in dialogue. At the same time, it has taken the lead in establishing a trilateral consultation mechanism involving Pakistan, China and Iran to tackle shared concerns. As Chinese economic footprint expands in Afghanistan, China is likely to intensify its efforts to address the security challenges.
This complex situation leaves Islamabad with limited options. Pakistan appears to have exhausted its perceived leverage by placing temporary economic embargos and initiating the repatriation of Afghan refugees in a bid to gain concessions on the TTP issue, without much success. Conversely, Iran appears to have found a foothold within its troubled neighbor despite sectarian rifts and soreness over recent skirmishes over water. The Islamic Republic also shares a common enemy with the Taliban in ISKP. On the economic front, Iran is significantly increasing its investments in Afghanistan. The Taliban have also invested $35 million in Chabahar, a move seen as an attempt to diversify their dependence on Islamabad.
With its coercive ability exposed, and the gateway-to-Taliban leverage now in the past, Pakistan must seek to develop new instruments of interdependence. One option that can potentially help Pakistan stabilize holistically is pursuing economic inroads into Afghanistan. This approach, extending CPEC and opting for intensified efforts at regional connectivity and trade, holds the key to one of the very few plausible win-scenarios for Pakistan. The idea is to make peace a commonly cherished good, thereby giving the Taliban regime a larger and renewed incentive and the mandate to rule the Afghans than promoting Jihad and the rule of stricter interpretations of Islam.
While Pakistan should intensify efforts at a more cohesive internal security strategy and creating economic incentives for IEA, the onus to act as a responsible neighbor and honor their counter terrorism commitments rests with the Taliban. China, along with other regional actors, must pursue all diplomatic and economic instruments to pressure the Taliban into preserving regional peace. Failure to act, at this critical juncture, will further isolate Afghanistan, embolden terrorist groups and condemn the future of the region to instability and conflict, with global ramifications.
***Dr. Khuram Iqbal is the author of three internationally acclaimed books on terrorism in Pakistan including “Pakistan Terrorism Ground Zero”, “Negotiating the Siege of Lal Masjid” and “The Making of Pakistani Human Bombs”.
Note: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of South Asia Strategic Research Center (GASAM)
