The future of US-China-Pakistan counterterrorism

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*Dr. Khuram Iqbal * Sardar Bakhsh

In apparently a joint intelligence operation, Pakistan and United States intelligence agencies were able to arrest Muhammad Sharifullah, alias Jafar, and was extradited to America. His involvement in a series of high-profile terrorist attacks made him the most wanted terrorist of ISKP. There could not have been a more appropriate time for such action as new regional developments like; the rise of ISKP, resurgence of TTP, and increasing great and regional powers rivalry in South Asia make the region more volatile and regional peace less durable than that during pre-9/11 attack days. The solution to this quagmire lies in sustained counterterrorism cooperation not only between the United States and Pakistan but it should also include China.

ISKP and TTP in Afghanistan and Pakistan pose a common threat to all these countries. The presence of terrorist groups in the region could be leveraged to bring all these countries on a single page in addressing the common threat of terrorism to regional and global security. Pakistan can work as a bridge to sideline geopolitical differences between the United States and China and work together in addressing the rising threats of extremism and terrorism in the region. Pakistan is in a better position to achieve this daunting task because Islamabad has a long history of counterterrorism cooperation, and established extradition treaties and intelligence-sharing mechanisms with Beijing and Washington. In return, Pakistan would expect both global powers to leverage their influence on the Taliban-led interim government of Afghanistan to cut off support for Tehreek-e-Talibal Pakistan (TTP).

For the United States, ISKP presents an opportunity to engage with regional countries for counterterrorism cooperation and intelligence sharing. It will align with over-the-horizon strategy of the US to counter terrorism in the region after its withdrawal from Afghanistan. The United States has a lot of stakes in the deteriorating security situation region. As per The Washington Post, a leaked Pentagon assessment report highlighted that Afghanistan has become a “significant coordination site” for IS, as the group plans to carry out attacks in Asia and Europe, with the aspiration to reach the US. The warnings of global terror threats are also alarmed by Washington’s FBI Director and CENTCOM’s Commander. Nonetheless, it is high time that the US should not follow a reactive but proactive approach to global terrorism. For this, the US needs both Pakistan’s and China’s collaboration and goodwill to counter terrorist groups like; ISKP, TTP, ETIM, IMU, and others.

For China, regional extremism and terrorism continue to remain top security risks for its overseas citizens and investments in the region. Chinese death toll from Islamist militants and Baloch separatists has risen sharply after the takeover of Kabul by Afghanistan. At the start of the year 2025, a Chinese citizen was killed by ISKP member in Afghanistan. Despite China’s increasing concerns about its citizens and renewed guarantees for the security of nationals by both Pakistan, the safety of Chinese workers in both countries is repeatedly compromised. However, Pakistan cannot deliver on fighting regional terrorist organizations without the active support of both the United States and China. In the past, the top terrorists wanted by China were neutralized by Pakistani forces, American drones, and joint intelligence operations by both countries. Some of them were Hasam Mahsum killed by Pakistan’s Airforce in 2003, Abdul Haq Turkistani killed by an American drone in North Waziristan in 2010 and Abdul Shakoor Turkistani, the head of ETIM and a member of al-Qaeda’s executive council, in Shawal by an American drone. So, China does not only see cooperation between the US and Pakistan as positive but sees it as an opportunity to address regional threats to its citizens and investment.

For Pakistan, the resurgence of TTP and the looming threat of ISKP have become an existential threat. Islamabad is in a situation of déjà vu as Global Terrorism Index 2025 has ranked it the world’s second most terrorism-affected country. After the hasty withdrawal of America and the takeover of Kabul by the Afghan Taliban in 2021, Tehrike-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) was emboldened and got a free hand to launch cross-border militant attacks in Pakistan. Therefore, with counterterrorism cooperation and intelligence sharing with the US, Pakistan can leverage the interim government of Afghanistan to stop giving hideouts to TTP and Baloch separatist groups. China’s increasing diplomatic engagement with the Taliban can also work in the favour of Islamabad to put regional pressure on the Afghan Taliban to disconnect itself from terrorist groups like; TTP and Al Qaeda, and take decisive actions against ISKP in the country. Pakistan also stands to get much-needed financial aid and military equipment from the United States to counter regional terrorism. Hence, with the support of both the US and China, Pakistan can improve its ranking on the Global Terrorism Index as it did a decade ago.

The region of South Asia has become more volatile as it has become a new hub for a renewed global terrorist front. It has some serious regional and, global implications. If regional stakeholders like; Pakistan, China, and Iran, and global players like; the United States and European Union pay no heed to the increasing warnings of the intelligence community over the activity of terrorist organizations, the operational capabilities of these organizations are going to further improve with global outreach. Thus, counterterrorism cooperation among the United States, China, and Pakistan is key to addressing this issue.

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