✍ Amina Jabbar, Pakistan
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan on Friday in a historic move inked a long-term defense agreement with the signing of the Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement, re-defining Middle East and South Asian security. The agreement, signed at Riyadh’s Al-Yamamah Palace, is a Middle East geopolitics earthquake as old power politics and friendships are rewritten following increased anarchy. The signing ceremony, which was witnessed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and the Pakistani Chief of Army Staff, Field Marshal Asim Munir, is a betrayal of the two nations’ new axis.
The timing of the agreement is significant in the wake of growing fear across the Gulf after the Israeli raid on Qatar. The attack, and restrained response by Washington, undercut the credibility of America’s security guarantees within the kingdom. Saudi Arabia has long relied heavily on America as its security umbrella, but Washington’s apparent weakness of response has provided Riyadh with the option of diversifying its own allegiances and playing a more active role in shaping its own security. The Saudi-Pakistani mutual defense agreement, whose shared article differs little in substance from NATO Article 5 — that an attack on either will be regarded as an attack on both — is an expression of Riyadh’s resolve to protect its interests in a world of re-aligned power dynamics.
The Saudi-Pakistani defense accord has lasted over six decades on the basis of historic mutual trust and cooperation. Pakistan mass-trained Saudi troops since 1967, having trained more than 8,200 Saudi troops under the threat of Pakistani command. Combined exercises, senior advisory positions, and intelligence-sharing proposals all were part of that old relationship. But the new treaty legalizes what became de facto practice, reshaping the alliance from transactional co-operation to a legal collective defense pact. This change of nature of relationship signals the increasing significance that the two nations place on their common security. The most sensational part of the agreement will likely be its symbolism.
The lead-up to Prime Minister Sharif’s journey to Saudi Arabia was a record demonstration of deference, in the guise of Saudi F-15 fighter escorts and a 21-gun salute — reserved for Saudi Arabia’s closest allies. The exhibition of solidarity is an too-blinding sign of the seriousness of the realignment and the deference to the new security dynamic by the two actors. The reality that it has come so fast in the wake of the Arab League-Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) summit in Qatar indicates that there is a school of thought that the Middle East is entering a new age of regionally motivated security. The summit leaders condemned Israeli airstrikes on Qatar and sent the message that the responsibility of institutions of regional security ought to be to be in a position as a collective to thwart foreign aggression. The deal is very profoundly strategic in nature.
It establishes an obligatory system of defense coordination wherein any state can invoke consultation and collective military action if it is subjected to attack by the outside world. The agreement also enhances cooperation in the sharing of intelligence, acquisition of advanced weapons, and joint military exercises. The enhanced cooperation not only enhances defense capability in the two countries but also puts them at the forefront of an expanded regional security architecture, one increasingly built outside the framework of American primacy. Joining the nuclear power of Pakistan by Saudi Arabia under the agreement has been greatly hyped, especially on social media.
The two governments explicitly stated they did not accept such an accusation. One of the senior Saudi officials explained that the deal is not the response to some incident or threat, but building an enduring relationship. Pakistan’s nuclear policy remains aimed at warding off the Indian threat, and although the presence of Pakistan’s nuclear status clearly brings a psychological element to the defense bloc, no commitment is being made here for providing an umbrella of nuclear protection to Saudi Arabia. A lack of certainty of the nuclear variable can continue to be used as a psychological deterrent, without added tensions of leverage. Geopolitically, the Saudi-Pakistani defense relationship is one step removed from the apron strings of America.
Historically, a longtime client of American military protection, Saudi Arabia is diversifying security agreements by hedging its bets. The action is part of a larger Gulf pattern in which states are shying away from Western security guarantees, especially against regional actors like Israel alone. The Saudi-Pakistani compromise would be one that other Gulf countries would emulate, and they would likely seek similar compromises with regional actors while seeking to detoxify themselves from Washington’s dominance. The reasons are simple.
The Gulf, having long been mesmerized by U.S. military dominance, is rapidly destabilizing. The Israeli bombing of Qatar and Washington’s half-hearted reaction have prompted regional leaders to question whether they can still rely on the West to advance their interests. The perception of America’s retreat from the region, along with confusion in U.S. foreign policy, has led the Gulf states to rethink their own security strategy. Saudi Arabia, in institutionalizing its defense ties with Pakistan, is also giving a signal that it wants to be more engaged in its own security and no longer want aid from extraterritorial great powers alone. This strategic adjustment also comes hand-in-hand with greater regional economic change, like Saudi Vision 2030 and China’s BRI 2.0. More Saudi investment in the energy and infrastructure centers in Pakistan will thus follow in the wake of this defense agreement, strengthening the economic union between the two nations. This military-economic union further places the Saudi-Pakistan axis at the pivot of the new regional security and economic order.
Saudi-Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defense Treaty marks the start of a new chapter in Middle East geopolitics. It is a symbol of the beginning of a new awareness of independence and the necessity to develop security systems unrelated to United States dominance. It is a turning point for the Gulf, as the states are taking back their security. It is not a close military alliance; it is a broader strategic shift toward a more multipolar Middle East arrangement where the like of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are major actors. The consequences of the alliance will be felt across the Middle East as other nations recalculate their alignments and security policy with greater ambiguity in the international system.
✍ Amina Jabbar is a Research Fellow at Quaid e Azam University
