*Arshad Khan – India
Results of globally most watched elections of the year has come out. Ruling BJP has given the slogan of “Abki bar 400 par” (This time above 400). Not surprisingly, NDA – coalition of which the PM Modi’s BJP is part of, has narrowly passed the majority mark. But the BJP falls short of the majority for the first time with Modi at the helm of its affairs. This election was fought under the impression of Modi vs the rest. All the opinion polls were projecting a landslide victory for the ruling alliance, but they were far off the mark from the actual results. Axis My India forecasted that the NDA could win over 400 seats in the Lok Sabha however when results trickled in its CEO Pradeep Gupta breaks down in tears after his exit poll prediction went wrong Lok Sabha election results 2024.
BBC commented that “While the winners appear subdued, the runners-up are celebrating”. for the first time in recent years, there is a sense of joy in all segments. Ruling party cadre is celebrating their victory, whereas the opposition has gathered a formidable force by getting above 42% seats. Even the press conference of opposition was held before the ruling party.
Environment prior to election
This election was held with impression that all the independent bodies of the government are following the dictates of ruling party, whereas the election commission has declared the schedule of election in seven phases to help the PM address most of the nation himself.
Role of media was also under scrutiny; majority of the media outlets are referred to Godi” media who portrays the PM positively over others. Also, the Enforcement Directorate, Income tax Dept were also blamed by opposition for targeting opposition candidates and parties.
Electoral bonds scam: Introduced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP government seven years ago, the Electoral Bond scheme allowed individuals and companies to donate money to political parties anonymously. However, on February 15, a five-judge bench of the Supreme Court headed by Chief Justice of India DY Chandrachud scrapped the ‘unconstitutional’ scheme. according to political observers, at least 14 companies that have reportedly donated over ₹4,000 crore to political parties, including the BJP, are being investigated by central agencies, as per the first data released on March 14.
What went wrong?
Divisive religious politics: People rejected the Divisive police of ruling party which was the main part of manifesto since last 5 decades. Ram Mandir was inaugurated by PM Modi last year, but the ruling BJP lost the election in Ayodhya (Faizabad) where the Ram Mandir is located. The locals were not happy with the way the party has handled the delicate matter. This led to many political experts oping that people are fed up with this type of politics.
Major states swing: Three major states stunned the masses by voting for the opposition. Uttar Pradesh (Where Ram Mandir is situated), West Bengal & Maharashtra where the states where BJP lost the majority of the 60+ seats. All these states voted for the regional parties.
South India: south of India which is highly educated and contribute the majority of GDP has mostly rejected the ruling party. BJP was expecting to gain in these states considerably. These states speak regional languages whereas the ruling party has majority in Hindi belt of India.
Ignoring dedicated cadre: BJP is cadre based ideological party, which has hardcore dedicated party workers from all spheres of life who has sacrificed their lives in bringing the party to this position; however, they were sidelined with the trading horses who recently joined the party and got the positions and seats which developed resentment among them. RSS which is primary party which use to control and support the BJP was also sidelined by the duo of Modi and home Minister Amit shah. Lack of interest from them cost the BJP more.
Share market: As per Business standard portal “The equity market took a precipitous plunge on Tuesday, obliterating Rs 31 trillion of investor wealth, after Lok Sabha election result trends signalled that the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) was falling way behind the halfway mark.
During intraday trading, the Nifty 50 plummeted by nearly 1,900 points — a 9 per cent nosedive — while the Sensex shed as much as 6,000 points. The market’s jitters were palpable, with concerns swirling around the composition of the incoming government and its political stability.
Impacts on future governance
India is one of the most developing countries in the world with its vast consumer base, highly skilled workforce, IT related exports and leading agriculture and industrial production hub. Hence, the outcome of this election was watched carefully by many overseas markets and political circles. As per the people’s Mandate following
Coalition Govt: As the ruling party has lost the majority for the first time in two decades, now they are at the mercy of their alliance partners; two of them are seasoned politicians who are champions of bargaining politics. Moreover, PM Modi does not have the experience of working with coalition partners as he has always received majority in most of his tenure as CM of Gujrat and PM of India. He is often considered authoritative among his inner circles.
Strong opposition: after a long gap, opposition has revived themselves; Congress and its leadership were often considered Inept to rule over the country; but they worked on ground and turn the tide towards them by bridging the gaps between them and other regional parties. Time will tell how much unity will be shown in coming days.
Myth busted: myth that Modi is invincible has been busted. His followers who are often referred to as Andhbhakts (Blind followers) by the opposition used to say that Modi hai to Mumkin Hai (Everything is possible with Modi). Will this trend continue with upcoming local elections need to be watched.
Real issues: Main issues of unemployment, Industrial growth, foreign investment, basic amenities and infra structure development will have to be address sincerely. These will be the core subjects on which the future of the country depends.
Hope India progress under new mandate with stability in coming days as it plays an important role in global challenges.
